WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation About the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started buying bitcoins and I’ve heard a great deal of talks about inflation and deflation however, not many people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s focus on inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and probably the most practical way to do it would be to link it with money. In past times it worked quite well as the money that has been issued was linked to gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to cover back all of the money it issued. However, during the past century this changed and gold is not what’s giving value to money but promises. As possible guess it’s very an easy task to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks are not renouncing to do so. For this reason they are printing money, so in other words they’re “creating wealth” out of thin air without really having it. This technique not merely exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money is worth less, whoever is selling something must increase the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they might offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy this is true. However, that is not the only reason. By issuing fresh money we are able to afford to cover back the debts we’d, basically we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that is not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we have been de-facto de-valuing our debts. That is why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s simpler to grow because debts are cheap. But which are the consequences of most this? It’s hard to store wealth. If you keep the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you’re actually losing wealth because your cash is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank comes with an inflation target at around 2% we are able to well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% each year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, based on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is exactly the opposite of inflation and it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s understand why. Basically, we’ve deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. This might be caused by an increase of value of money. To begin with, it would hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value increase overtime. Alternatively merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They’ll have to sell their goods quick otherwise they will lose money as the price they will charge because of their services will drop as time passes. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments usually do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt can be a real burden since it will only get bigger as time passes. Because our economies are based on debt you can imagine exactly what will be the consequences of deflation.

So to conclude, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Therefore the future generations can pay our debts. Bitcoin Evolution Review on the other hand makes growth harder but it implies that future generations won’t have much debt to pay (in such context it could be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are designed to be an alternative for the money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we will never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they are designed to be deflationary. Now we have all seen what the consequences of deflation are. However, in a bitcoin-based future it would still be easy for businesses to thrive. The ideal solution will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins would be very costly business can still obtain the capital they need by issuing shares of their company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will be distributed more evenly among people. However, simply for clarity, I have to say that area of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins as the fees will be extremely low and there will not be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This might buffer some of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to pay back the huge debts that people inherited from the past generations.

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